IR: SYRIA CRISIS

SYRIA CRISIS

About Syria

  

• Battle between loyal to President Bashar Al-Assad and those who oppose him.
• Syria became an independent republic in 1946, After that it suffered from series of coups.
• General Hafez al-Assad, father of current prez. seized power in 1970 and declared himself President, a position that he held until his death in 2000.
• Syria was hit by an economic crisis in 1980 and it was clear that economic reforms were crucial to resolve the situation.
• Bashar al-Assad took over as President of Syria from his father Hafez al-Assad
• Al-Assad family is Alawite, a small branch of Shia Muslims.
• But nearly 75% of Syria’s population is Sunni Muslims.
• Bashar has filled key positions in his government with either his family members or the Alawite Minority Muslims.
• Combined with rampant corruption, inflation, unemployment, Syria was sitting on a volcano about to erupt.
• While Bashar al Assad sought to resolve the crisis by initially adopting for a Chinese style market economy, it did not work out for Syria.
• The adoption of economic liberalization marked a transition from the earlier socialist policy resulted in loss of subsidies for agricultural farmers in the rural areas, homelessness for many Syrians who had lived on state owned estates. It led to poverty, illiteracy, unemployment especially in the rural areas before the uprising in 2011.
• The violence in Syria began in March 2011 and the middle eastern country has been crippled by a brutal civil war ever since.  
• Since then, the United Nations estimates more than 250,000 people have died in the clashes between President Bashar al-Assad's government and rebel forces who want him out.  
• The UN's Refugee Agency says more than four million people have fled Syria to neighbouring countries, and over half of those are children.
• Many of the refugees are among the tens of thousands who have been arriving in Europe, trying to reach countries like Britain and Germany.
• In July 2012, the International Red Cross said the violence in Syria had become so widespread that it was in a state of civil war.

How did it all start?

• The trouble began in 2011 in the Syrian city of Deraa.
• Locals took to the streets to protest after 15 schoolchildren were arrested - and reportedly tortured - for writing anti-government graffiti on a wall.
• The protests were peaceful to begin with, calling for the release of the children, democracy and greater freedom for people in the country.
• The government responded angrily, and on 18 March 2011, the army opened fire on protesters, killing four people.
• The following day, they shot at mourners at the victims' funerals, killing another person.
  People were shocked and angry at what had happened and soon the unrest spread to other parts of the country.

What do the protesters want and what have they got?

• At first the protesters just wanted democracy and greater freedom.
• But once government forces opened fire on peaceful demonstrations, people demanded that the President, Bashar al-Assad, resign.
• President Assad refused to step down.
• As the violence worsened he offered to change some things about the way the country was run, but the protesters didn't believe him.
• President Assad also has quite a lot of people in Syria that still support him and his government. 

Who are the rebel fighters?

• There isn't a clear single group of rebels, united against President Assad.
• The opposition, who all want the president to step down, is split between groups of rebel fighters, political parties and people living in exile, who cannot return to the country.
• It's thought there could have been as many as 1,000 groups opposing the government since the conflict began, with an estimated 100,000 fighters.

The Rise of IS

• The war is now more than just a battle between those for or against President Assad.
• In early 2014, in neighbouring Iraq, an extremist group called Islamic State, or IS, began to take over large areas of the country.
• IS is a radical militant group which has used violence against anyone who doesn't agree with their extremist views.
• They have also persecuted other groups, including Christians and Yazidis.

IS later moved into eastern Syria and in the chaos of war they were able to gain land and power there too.

• To try and stop IS, in September 2014 the US, UK and other countries joined forces, using planes to attack their fighters on the ground in Iraq.

Chemical weapons

• In August 2013, a chemical attack just outside the Syrian capital, Damascus, caused a strong reaction from many countries including America, Britain and France.
• After the effects of these weapons were seen, there were long discussions over what the rest of the world should do.
• In September 2013, United Nations inspectors confirmed that chemical weapons had been used in Syria, but the report did not say who was responsible.
• Syria, however, denies using chemical weapons, which are banned under international law because the effects of their use are so horrific.
• The government in Syria said: "There is no country in the world that uses a weapon of ultimate destruction against its own people."
• They blamed the rebel forces for the chemical attack.

International Community
Pro Assad

• Iran:Because ruled by Shia.
• Hezbollah:Because it is a Shia Militant group cum Political party based in Lebanon.
• Russia:Has a naval base in Tartus and large diaspora.
• China:Has massive investments in Syria, in energy sector [oil,gas etc.], Assad has given major defense contracts to China. [missile Development etc], Chinese Government doesn’t want Chinese protestors to replay the same events at home, demanding freedom of speech and democracy, It doesn’t want America to dominate over this region.

Anti Assad

• Saudi Arabia and Bahrain:because ruled by Sunnis.
• U.S.:Syria has been actively supporting Hamas and Hezbollah while sharing a border with Israel and  If America could somehow install a friendly regime, then it’d help it gain absolute hegemony over the Middle East.

• United States and many of its Western allies have imposed economic sanctions against Syria, condemning al-Assad and demanding that he leave power.
• But they have not persuaded the U.N. Security Council [UNSC] to do the same.
• China and Russia — two of Syria’s commercial partners — have vetoed several proposed resolutions on Syria in the UNSC.

Destruction of chemical weapons

• The chemical attack caused international outrage and many leaders argued it demanded a strong response.
• But MPs in Westminster voted against Britain being involved in military action in Syria.
• The American and French governments discussed limited missile strikes against military targets in Syria.
• But Russia has strong ties with President Assad's Syrian government and has helped Syria in the past by supplying weapons.
• In September 2013 Russia suggested a solution that could avoid a wider conflict: that the Syrian government should give up its chemical weapons and commit to destroying them so they can never again be used.
• The process of destroying the weapons began in October 2013, and the people working on this project were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize later that month.

India's stake in Syria

• Unlike Russia, We don’t have much diaspora or any military base in Syria.
• We hardly import any oil/ gas from Syria
• Assad supports India’s claim for permanent seat atUNSC.
• We’ve have invested millions in Syrian power & steel sector to keep him in good humor.
• Experts believe Rebels will control 2/3rd of Syria’s territory & energy resources- if status quo maintained. Then India can say goodbye to money invested/loaned to Assad.
• For energy security we want both Iran (Shia) and Saudi Arab (Sunni). Since both are against each other on Syria issue, we have to talk “neutral”.
• We want both Assad and Rebels to renounce violence.
• We Want Peaceful resolution through dialogue, at Geneva-II conference (‘International Conference on Syria’)  but yielded no tangible results

The refugee crisis

• Many ordinary Syrian people have been caught up in the violence during the war and have been forced to leave their homes to escape to safety in other countries.
• Every day refugees stream across the borders of Syria into the neighbouring nations of Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.
• More than 4 million people have fled Syria since the start of the conflict, most of them women and children. It is one of the largest refugee movements in recent history.
• A further 8 million people, 50% of them children, have had to leave their homes within Syria.
• They are in desperate need of help. But aid agencies say that getting aid to people inside Syria is very difficult and dangerous.
• Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have now fled the country and refugee camps in neighbouring countries to come to Europe.
• The journey they make across land and sea is often very dangerous.
• Some countries in Europe have said they will accept refugees who want to start a new life here.

What Next?

• There is a stalemate between the two sides: the government forces and the rebel groups are unable to defeat each other.
• Both the Syrian government and rebel groups are now also having to fight back against the terrorist group Islamic State,
• Caught in the middle of these wars, the Syrian people have lost their homes and members of their family. Many are living in makeshift camps.
• Lots of countries are continuing to supply aid, such as food and emergency supplies, but the US and Britain said they had to stop all other support as they feared the equipment may be stolen by rebel groups, which they did not support.
• For now, discussions continue between powerful nations like the US, Russia, Britain and France, to try to work out if there is another way to help Syria achieve peace.